2006 Forest Fire Air Quality Updates
September 8, 2006
10:00 AM
Current Situation
Easterly winds have pushed a plume of smoke aloft up against the continental divide as far north as Choteau. The smoke is from the Derby and Paradise Valley fires near Big Timber. Most of this smoke is still trapped above strong morning inversions and is just turning the horizon white. There is a stronger plume stretching from Bozeman to Butte and conditions in Bozeman are UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS right now. The rest of the reporting stations are at MODERATE now but smoke impacts at the surface will start to occur later this morning and early afternoon. See the forecast below for details. Smoke is very thick in some of the drainages near the active fires and conditions there are thought to be VERY UNHEALTHY or worse. Local episodes of intense smoke impacts are likely in many locations today, residents should pay attention to conditions in their area and use the VISIBILITY GUIDELINES to determine smoke levels in their area and guide their activity decisions through the day as conditions change.
Morning satellite photo centered on Great Falls
WeatherBug web cam photo of Livingston, MT 59047 by Pat Gilligan
DEQ web cam facing north towards the "Sleeping Giant" mountain
MODIS Active Fire Mapping Program
This morning’s analysis from NOAA's satellite services division shows the active fires in Montana and the smoke plumes combining and spreading downwind (the analyzed smoke is based on yesterday’s satellite coverage, the fire detects are based on last nights satellite coverage).
Red indicates hot spot detected. Grey represents smoke seen by satellite. Fire
size is exaggerated for visibility at this scale. To identify individual fires on graphic above go
here: http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/lg_fire2.php
Real time particulate information is currently available in most of the larger urban areas from several different sources including: DEQ run PM-10 BAMS and PM2.5 BAMS, NWS ASOS visibility monitors, and USFS remote access Nephelometers and BAMS.
This morning’s smoke report is below, comparing particulate levels where we have information to MDEQ’s Forest Fire health advisory levels. Smoke Categories
Updated 10:00 AM September 8, 2006
Locations and severity of forest fire smoke reports since midnight of the date above at reporting stations.
| Smoke Conditions | City |
|---|---|
| Hazardous | |
| Very Unhealthy | Mill Creek area (est) Derby Fire area (est) |
| Unhealthy | |
| Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups | Bozeman Vis(2) Butte T8 |
| Moderate | Whitefish T8 Kalispell T8 Polson T8 Missoula T8 Hamilton T24 Helena (est) Gardiner (est) Great Falls Vis(1) Dillon Vis(2) West Yellowstone T24 |
| Good |
|
T1(x) |
One-hour TEOM value (number of values) |
| T8(x)) | Eight-hour average TEOM value (number of values) |
| T244 | 24 hour average TEOM value |
| Vis(x) | Visibility value (number of hours) |
| Vis(am/pm) | Visibility value from twice/day reporting stations |
Local impacts in areas immediately adjacent to active fires are expected to exceed some or all of the advisory levels. DEQ recommends the use of local visibility guidelines to evaluate possible health risks and make informed activity decisions.
Forecast
There will be a few scattered mostly dry thunderstorms today. Easterly flow at the surface will continue to push smoke into the Bozeman, Butte and Helena areas today and smoke conditions there will need careful attention by residents. The smoke aloft is trapped in a layer several thousand feet thick. Surface conditions are not too bad in most locations this morning but once the temperature has increased enough to raise the mixing height to the level of the plume aloft, smoke will heavily impact many areas for several hours at least. Overall dispersion is still poor and persistent smoke impacts are possible in some locations. Smoke trapped in the valleys near the active fires will moderate a little this afternoon but increased fire activity as the inversions lift may still produce VERY UNHEALTHY impacts or worse in those locations. Residents are strongly cautioned to check their local conditions using the visibility guidelines to guide their activity decisions as the situation changes.
John Coefield
Meteorologist
MDEQ
